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style="font-size:14px"><strong><span style="color:black; font-family:宋體">看點一：改善性需求有望延續</span></strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 日前，著名證券研究機構中金公司研究部率先發布了對</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年及以后的中國房地產市場趨勢預測報告。報告認為，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年中國房地產市場將整體較為平淡，分化的走勢還將繼續，一二線城市房地產銷售均價將上漲</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">10%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，而銷量將持平。位于高鐵網絡連接的中心城市由于推動了經濟升級和人口流入，房地產需求通常比較穩健，像北京、天津、上海、杭州、南京等城市的房地產前景依然被看好，而三四線城市的房地產市場面臨著高庫存和弱需求，預計房地產銷量將下降</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">10%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，銷售均價將下跌</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">5%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">。</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif"> </span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 從</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年成交結構方面可以看出，改善性需求已經在釋放。為此，有專家預計</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年一、二線城市會延續去年改善性住房需求強勁的表現，需求成交比例將進一步提高。究其原因，主要是因為不少家庭現有的住房普遍戶型較小，而且相當一部分現有住房質量不佳。另外，二孩政策的全面放開也是導致改善性住宅需求旺盛的重要推手。在地產企業方面，不少房企</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年拿的地很多也是為了改善型需求做準備。因此，與改善型住房需求相比，首次置業需求和投資性需求正趨于弱勢。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 另外，記者在采訪部分置業者也聽到這樣一種聲音：</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年的房地產市場會比</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年稍差一些，但要強于</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2014</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年。這是因為首先從人口結構來講，剛需雖然有所減少，但改善性需求蓬勃發展，從而彌補了剛需的略微下降，也就是說整體需求還在；另外，國家政策支持力度也會有望越來越大；最后，中國城市群格局會越來越清晰，如果房地產企業布局合理、找準定位，同樣會取得理想的銷售業績。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> </span> <span style="font-size:14px"><strong><span style="color:black; font-family:宋體">看點二：一線城市表現更好</span></strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 就在剛剛過去的</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年末，中國人民銀行發布《</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年中國宏觀經濟預測》報告。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 記者看到，在房地產方面，該報告指出，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月以來，全國商品房銷售面積和銷售額同比增速開始由負轉正。</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">11</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月商品房銷售面積的同比增速平均為</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">11.8%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，而商品房銷售額的同比增速平均為</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">22.4%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">。三季度國房景氣指數顯現止跌回升勢頭，從二季度的</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">92.54</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">上升到</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">93.30</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，進一步表明房地產市場有逐漸回暖跡象。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 分城市看，北京、上海、廣州、深圳等一線城市銷售額增速明顯快于其他城市，其他城市的商品房銷售也在復蘇。一線城市房價在</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">6</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月份開始出現同比增長，目前同比漲幅已達約</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">15%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，二三線城市房價降幅持續收窄，情況也在改善。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 房地產銷售的回暖和存銷比的下降，將有助于提升開發商的信心，有利于未來房地產開發投資的企穩回升。但是也有跡象表明，在一段時間之內，房地產投資仍將面臨一些下行壓力。首先，從先行指標看，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年前</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">10</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月房屋新開工面積同比下降</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">13.9%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，因此房地產投資增速在一段時間內還可能繼續減速；第二，未在統計之內的一些三、四線城市的房價、銷售和庫存情況并不樂觀，因此在一些大中城市房地產投資開始回升之時，中小城市的投資仍可能繼續減速；第三，不少地區銷售回暖和待售增長并存，但待售面積增長較快；第四，從中長期看，人口因素對房地產市場的支撐力度將減弱。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 該報告還進一步做出分析，作為房地產開發投資的重要領先指標，房地產銷售回暖一般預示著房地產市場去庫存速度加快，后續投資將回升。據歷史數據測算，銷售端的熱度向前傳導到開發端一般需三個季度左右。但考慮到上述下行壓力，預期此輪銷售回暖帶動房地產投資回升的時滯很可能長于歷史規律，即房地產開發投資的企穩回升更可能發生在</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年下半年。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> <strong> </strong></span><span style="font-size:14px"><strong> <span style="color:black; font-family:宋體">看點三：仍以去庫存為主</span></strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 由于</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年的房地產市場仍然要以去庫存為主要任務，因此，市場更寄予希望的是房貸、稅收等方面政策的繼續放松。為此有專家預測，最大程度激活剛性需求的手段則是首付的下調，如果此舉能夠實施，則對樓市去庫存將發揮最為顯著的推動作用。此外，房貸利息抵扣個稅政策也能夠切實提高購房者的購買力，特別是對改善型需求的刺激或更為明顯，因此如果實施，將在一、二線城市引爆樓市，對于庫存去化會有明顯的促進作用。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 此外，中國社會科學院經濟學部、中國社會科學院科研局、中國社會科學院數量經濟與技術經濟研究所、社會科學文獻出版社也在不久前共同舉辦</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年《經濟藍皮書》發布暨中國經濟形勢報告會。藍皮書指出，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年以來“救市”政策頻發，央行五次降息四次降準，一線城市、部分二線城市樓市需求在政策刺激下開始集中釋放，樓市基本面出現好轉。在房地產銷售方面，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">9</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月，全國商品房銷售面積同比增長</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">7.5%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，比</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">8</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月繼續提高</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">0.3</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">個百分點，下半年以來持續好轉，其中住宅銷售面積同比增長</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">8.2%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，回暖勢頭良好；在房地產資金方面，房地產開發企業到位資金增速繼續加快，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">9</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月，全國房地產開發企業到位資金同比增長</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">0.9%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，與</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">8</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月持平，連續</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">個月正增長。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 房地產市場的持續回暖有望從銷售端傳導到投資端，尤其是隨著部分大城市庫存不足的風險凸顯，其房地產投資有望企穩回升；在房地產資金方面，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">9</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月，房地產開發企業新開工面積同比下降</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">12.6%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，降幅收窄</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4.2</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">個百分點，下半年以來降幅首次縮窄，也顯示房地產新開工項目正出現筑底回升跡象，后續房地產投資增速或將有好轉。此外，從歷史經驗看，房地產銷售形勢回暖，經過一段時間之后，必然要帶動房地產投資由降轉升。盡管有存量房消化任務，但大城市存量房持續較快減少，住宅開發投資活動必然會逐步增加。</span></p> </div> </div> </div> </div>   <div id="right"> <div class="title news"></div> <ul class="menu" style="width: 259px;border: 1px solid #e6e6e6;height: 226px;"> <li id="tags1"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=1" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">綜合新聞</a></li>  <li id="tags3"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">媒體報道</a></li> <li id="tags4"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=4" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">招標公告</a></li> <li id="tags5"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=5" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">政策導讀</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>  </div> </div> <div class="container" style="padding-bottom: 10px;padding-top: 10px;">  <div 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